Across the Middle East we are witnessing rebellions against tyrants. These rebels are not moved by fear. They are moved by hope- the hope that it is possible to create something new.
We are often reminded of the importance of learning the lesson of history. The challenge is not simply to study history, but rather to apply the correct bit of history to the current situation.
At the beginning of the uprisings in Tunisia and then in Egypt, people in the West feared that they were seeing a repeat of the events which took place in Iran in 1979, the events which brought the current Iranian regime to power.
Who is rebelling?
Many in the West feared that the uprising in Egypt was led by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Today’s revolutionaries are not jihadists. They are not followers of Bin Laden, committed to using violence to overthrow the governments, committed to using violence to establish Islamic republics. Quite the opposite- by using nonviolent protest, they give lie to the Bin Laden argument that violence is the only path.
In most cases today, revolutionaries are not caliphists, wanting to establish a state in which religious authority and governmental authority would be in the same hands.
Today’s revolutionaries are young people, young people speaking their minds. They held nonviolent demonstrations. When Mubarak delayed resigning, they did not storm the presidential palace. They did not set up a guillotine in Tahrir Square.
Iran of 1979 is not the correct historic model. I think that the revolutions against the monarchies which took place in Europe in 1848 are a much closer historic precedent.
The Revolutions of 1848 began in February in France where the people wanted universal suffrage. They overthrew King Louis Philippe and established the Second Republic. The revolution in France inspired people in other countries in Europe. Liberals in the German states pushed for a unified German country with a national parliament. The Italian states also had a revolution which led to Pope Pius IX fleeing Italy. Within the Austrian Empire, nationalism increased among the Czechs, Hungarians, Germans and other groups.
In the short run, these rebellions collapsed. But, in the long run, they paved the way for the creation of modern Europe.
I have been in a totalitarian country. In 1986 I visited the Soviet Union. Rabbi Michael Weinberg and I went to see refuseniks persecuted by the communist states. We followed rules to avoid being detected. The Soviet State had lots of watchers. But there were many more people being watched. The watchers’ fears maintained the power of the state.
The collapse of the Soviet Union occurred in stages. But one could say that the Soviet Union was over when the army would not fire on citizens massed in Moscow. In Egypt, Mubarak’s regime was over when the army would not enforce his will. In contrast, in Libya, Bahrain and Iran, the army has used force. The outcome in these counties will depend, to a large extent, on the willingness of the army to continue to be the enforcers of the tyrant’s will.
- I cannot see the future.
- I can imagine the future.
What impact will the changes have on the Israel/Egypt relationship?
- I think the peace agreement will hold. The struggle to overthrow Mubarak was not Israel-centered. When Joe Lieberman was running for vice president, I attended a Labor Zionist seminar. Many of the participants spoke of the response of “non-Jews” to Lieberman. One of the groups observed that regular Americans do not think of themselves as “non-Jews.”
It is hard for us as Jews to believe, but this is not about us. Egyptians do not want war with Israel. They have no motivation for war with Israel. The Egyptians want to build Egyptian society.
Will elections actually take place in Egypt?
Will elections actually take place in Egypt?
- I think the Egyptian people will insist on elections.
What will be the result of those elections?
- Overthrowing any regime can be messy. The French Revolution lasted ten years and consumed its leaders. A stable democratic government is a reasonable hope, but it may take a while to get there.
What will be the impact of these events on the Palestinians in the West Bank and in Gaza?
- The Palestinian Authority has announced elections by September. Hamas responded by saying they would not participate. They came to power in Gaza through elections, but now they do not want to participate. Why? Because they fear that they will not win.
- In Gaza, there already is pressure on Egypt to open the border with Gaza. This may create closer ties to Egypt. I understand that this thought may upset friends of Israel. But I think in the long run it would create greater stability in Gaza. Also, it could rotate the focus of Gaza from Israel towards Egypt.
What will be the impact of these events on the governments of Jordan and Saudi Arabia?
- The royal families in these two countries have strong holds on the loyalty of their populations.
How will events in Libya, Bahrain and Iran play out?
- There are lots of factors specific to each country including:
- Size and power of royal families
- Clan structure
- Distribution and control of wealth
- Religious differences
I cannot in this setting take the time to talk about all of them. I expect violent, messy, ongoing struggles.
In reflecting on this Middle Eastern “spring," many have mentioned that electronic communication makes these movements possible. But the key element is the message being communicated. These young protesters are moved by the spirit of 1776.
In the immortal words of Thomas Jefferson:
"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, which among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed."
In the Middle East, the governed are insisting on their right of consent.
Jefferson wrote that when a people suffers "a long train of abuses" from their government “it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.”
We may not like everything that happens as a result of these revolutions, but we cannot but be inspired by the rising up of the governed insisting on their right of consent.
In reflecting on this Middle Eastern “spring," many have mentioned that electronic communication makes these movements possible. But the key element is the message being communicated. These young protesters are moved by the spirit of 1776.
In the immortal words of Thomas Jefferson:
"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, which among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed."
In the Middle East, the governed are insisting on their right of consent.
Jefferson wrote that when a people suffers "a long train of abuses" from their government “it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.”
We may not like everything that happens as a result of these revolutions, but we cannot but be inspired by the rising up of the governed insisting on their right of consent.
